The Fight for the Senate, 2018: The Results As They Come In

The Fight for the Senate, 2018: The Results As They Come In

Republican control of the U.S. Senate is on the line tonight. But thanks to a 2018 landscape in which there are far more vulnerable Democratic seats (26 out of 35, which includes special elections in Minnesota and Mississippi), the GOP is favored to hang onto or even increase its narrow margin of control (currently 51 senators, plus the insurance policy of the vice-president’s tie-breaking vote). But there are a lot of very close races on tap. The Cook Political Report rates nine of them as toss-ups, and another four as competitive. So any number of outcomes are possible when the dust settles.

In this regularly updated post we will note competitive Senate races that have been called by a major media outlet (most often the Associated Press) as having been decided, with some additional information on the significance of the particular result.

2:29 a.m. EST: Democrats finally clawed back a Republican-held seat as Congresswoman Jacky Rosen defeated incumbent Dean Heller in Nevada. In a test of the two parties’ organizational strength, Democrats prevailed narrowly in the early voting and then on Election Day. Heller went from being an underdog to a narrow favorite in the home stretch — but is now a former senator.

2:00 a.m. EST: Mississippi Senate special election goes to a runoff between incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Mike Espy. Because it was a nonpartisan special election to fill out the term of former senator Thad Cochran, a majority was required to avoid a November 27 runoff. The main surprise here is that Hyde-Smith barely ran ahead of Espy, a former congressman and Clinton administration Secretary of Agriculture, despite facing underwhelming Republican opposition from fiery neo-Confederate Chris McDaniel. But in this heavily Republican state, the incumbent will be a strong favorite in the runoff.

11:11 EST: Democrats lose another heartbreaker as Claire McCaskill loses to Josh Hawley in Missouri. McCaskill’s luck in this red state finally ran out, as terrible losing margins in rural areas sank her against the state’s attorney general. This was a race she looked to be narrowly leading in, and another in which Trump will take credit for the late win.

10:15 EST: Beto O’Rourke loses, officially killing Democrats’ dreams of holding the Senate, and ousting Ted Cruz. Though the race was close enough to drag out hopes of Betomania well into election night, the Texas Senate race ended how most recent polls said it would: with O’Rourke narrowly losing to Cruz. Ultimately, O’Rourke’s massive fundraising haul and Cruz’s profound unlikability was not enough to turn Texas blue. Should we blame Beyoncé for waiting so long to announce her endorsement? Were Republicans secretly hoping to rid themselves of Cruz while keeping the Senate? Will failing to actually win dampen Beto 2020 enthusiasm? There will certainly be plenty of pieces pondering these questions and more in the days to come.

9:30 EST: Democrat Joe Manchin survives again in pro-Trump West Virginia. In an outcome that would have mattered a lot more had Democrats done better in other red states, Senator Joe Manchin defeated Republican attorney general Pat Morrisey, who had been gaining some momentum down the stretch. Manchin helped insulate himself against Republican attacks by voting to confirm Brett Kavanaugh.

9:05 EST: Republicans win in Tennessee — chances for a blue Senate are basically kaput. For a long time there, Democrats felt good about Tennessee. No longer: Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn, a close Trump ally, has beat Phil Bredesen, the popular former governor running as a moderate. Bredesen always said he’d win as long as the race didn’t get nationalized, but he started slipping in polls around the time of the Kavanaugh fight. In the end, even Taylor Swift’s endorsement couldn’t give him the win.

8:49 EST: Mike Braun prevails over Joe Donnelly in Indiana. 
Mitch McConnell’s job appears to be secure. In preelection polls, Donnelly looked like one of the safest Democratic incumbents from a heavily pro-Trump state. But on the strength of overwhelming support from rural areas, businessman Mike Braun put an end to Donnelly’s Senate tenure — and, in all probability, to the Democratic Party’s hopes of winning a majority in the upper chamber Tuesday night.

8:30 EST: Bob Menendez holds onto his Senate seat in New Jersey.When the Cook Report classified Menendez’s race as a toss-up recently, things got tense for Democrats over a race that under normal circumstances they would have won going away. What was not normal was that Menendez had been indicted on corruption charges and escaped with hung jury. Contrary to political custom he chose to run again anyway. After some moments of doubt, the voters of New Jersey seem to have decided to hold their collective noses and vote to keep the Senate seat blue rather than give it to GOP challenger Bob Hugin — and Mitch McConnell.

8:08 EST: Sherrod Brown wins easily in a state Trump carried by eight points. Left-leaning Ohio “populist” Democrat Sherrod Brown, thought initially to be vulnerable in a state that Trump carried by eight points, was quickly called the winner over Republican congressman and Trump buddy Jim Renacci soon after the polls closed. It’s potentially another sign of midwestern buyer’s remorse over Trump and his allies. And Brown is sure to be mentioned as a 2020 presidential possibility.

7:15 EST: Sanders and Kaine cruise to reelection. No one thought that Vermont’s Bernie Sanders or Virginia’s Tim Kaine were in any trouble. But these two national Democratic figures won instantly when the polls closed in their states. And while Sanders was never in a scintilla of trouble, it is significant that Kaine easily dispatched Trump ally and neo-Confederate hero Corey Stewart, who nearly won the GOP gubernatorial nomination last year.

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